March Madness predictions 2026: Using KenPom to pick NCAA bracket upsets, Final Four

March Madness predictions 2026: Using KenPom to pick NCAA bracket upsets, Final Four originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Before making your 2026 NCAA Tournamentbracket picks from the first round through the Final Four, consulting Ken Pomeroy's eponymous KenPom ratings is a must. March Madness gets its name because of those unforeseen upsets, early exits and fantastic finishes, but in the end, it's still about statistical sanity.

Most bracket-fillers will make picks based on recency, rankings and seeding bias, but Pomeroy's in-depth, numbers-based bracket breakdown carries a history of analytical success.

Consider the results of the last 17 NCAA Tournaments. From Kansas cutting down the nets in 2008 to Florida winning it for a third time overall last year, only six of 68 teams (8.8 percent) that went into those tourneys ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom advanced to the Final Four.

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Florida was No. 3 in KenPom when it won last year, and fellow top-seeded Final Four teams Duke (No. 1), Houston (No. 2) and Auburn (No. 4) all joined them in KenPom's top four. In 2024, UConn was No. 1 in KenPom when it repeated and fellow Final Four teams Purdue (No. 3), North Carolina (No. 9) and Alabama (No. 14) were all rock solid. In 2023, upstart semifinalists San Diego State (No. 14) and Florida Atlantic (No. 17) also fit that top-20 criteria.

Champion Kansas was No. 3 in KenPom during the regular season before the '22 tourney, when North Carolina (No. 16), Duke (No. 8) and Villanova (No. 10) joined them in the Final Four. In '21, along with champion Baylor (No. 2 in KenPom), the Final Four featured runner-up Gonzaga (No. 1 in KenPom), Houston (No. 5 in KenPom) and UCLA (No. 13 in KenPom).

Ten of the past 17 NCAA champions were rated No. 1 in KenPom. Gonzaga, No. 1 in 2017 and 2021, made the championship game in both years. Kentucky, No. 1 in 2015, made the Final Four.

KenPom helps you find the standout chalk, but it can also help identify sleepers and busts based on two signature stats: adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. If a team is highly rated in either area, it can compensate for deficiencies on the other end.

In 2018, when Loyola-Chicago crashed the Final Four, it had the No. 17-rated KenPom defense on its side. In 2017, South Carolina ranked 91st in offense but made a Cinderella run to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed thanks to its third-ranked defense. In 2013, Louisville rode its seventh-ranked offense and top-ranked defense to the Final Four.

With the exception of two statistical anomalies since 2010 — VCU and Butler, both in 2011 — nothing has been shocking in the national semifinals when accounting for KenPom. A team rated higher than its opponent on either offense or defense has a chance to beat anyone in the tournament.

Before using KenPom to make your 2026 March Madness bracket picks, here's looking at how well the best teams in this year's NCAA Tournament are rated.

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KenPom ratings for 2026 March Madness

Top dozen teams in NCAA Tournament by overall KenPom ranking1. Duke (No. 1 seed in East)2. Arizona (No. 1 seed in West)3. Michigan (No. 1 seed in Midwest)4. Florida (No. 1 seed in South)5. Houston (No. 2 seed in South)6. Iowa State (No. 2 seed in Midwest)7. Illinois (No. 3 seed in South)8. Purdue (No. 2 seed in West)9. Michigan State (No. 3 seed in East)10. Gonzaga (No. 3 seed in West)11. UConn (No. 2 seed in East)12. Vanderbilt (No. 5 seed in South)

Duke has some injury issues but is still better positioned to go a little deeper this year. Along with Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston and Iowa State, that is a difficult party to crash at the top. Purdue, Illinois and Vanderbilt have best chances to win it all outside of that group.

Top dozen teams in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency1. Purdue (No. 2 seed in West)2. Illinois (No. 3 seed in South)3. Alabama (No. 4 seed in Midwest)4. Duke (No. 1 seed in East)5. Arizona (No. 1 seed in West)6. Arkansas (No. 4 seed in West)7. Vanderbilt (No. 5 seed in South)8. Michigan (No. 1 seed in Midwest)9. Florida (No. 1 seed in South)10. BYU (No. 6 seed in West)11. Wisconsin (No. 5 seed in West)12. Texas Tech (No. 5 seed in Midwest)

Purdue's scoring power showed up in knocking off Michigan in the Big Ten tournament with Illinois almost being as dangerous. Alabama and Arkansas join Vandy as dangerous SEC floaters rated ahead of reigning national champion Florida.

Top dozen teams in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency1. Michigan (No. 1 seed in Midwest)2. Duke (No. 1 seed in East)3. Arizona (No. 1 seed in West)4. Iowa State (No. 2 seed in Midwest)5. Houston (No. 2 seed in South)6. Florida (No. 1 seed in South)7. Nebraska (No. 4 seed in South)8. Gonzaga (No. 3 seed in West)9. Kansas (No. 4 seed in East)10. UConn (No. 2 seed in West)11. St. John's (No. 5 seed in East)12. Michigan State (No. 3 seed in East)

Michigan and Duke have the toughest defenses among the heavyweights in the tournament. Iowa State and Nebraska become more intriguing to make runs with their ratings here.

Most underseeded teams in NCAA Tournament by KenPom1. Illinois (No. 7 in KenPom, No. 3 seed in South)2. Vanderbilt (No. 12 in KenPom, No. 5 seed in South)3. Tennessee (No. 16 in KenPom, No. 6 seed in Midwest)4. Louisville (No. 19 in KenPom, No. 6 seed in East)5. Iowa (No. 25 in KenPom, No. 9 seed in South)6. Ohio State (No. 26 in KenPom, No. 8 seed in East)7. Utah State (No. 30 in KenPom, No. 9 seed in West)8. NC State (No. 34 in KenPom, No. 11 seed in West)

Illinois, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Iowa are the typical teams from strong conferences in the Big Ten and SEC that didn't have the pleasing enough won-loss results in relation to other rivals to be seeded high, although their efficiency numbers tell a different story.

Most overseeded teams in NCAA Tournament by KenPom1. Kansas (No. 21 in KenPom, No. 4 seed in Region)2. North Carolina (No. 29 in KenPom, No. 6 seed in South)3. Saint Louis (No. 41 in KenPom, No. 9 seed in Midwest)4. Missouri (No. 52 in KenPom, No. 10 seed in West)5. UCF (No. 54 in KenPom, No. 10 seed in East)6. Akron (No. 64 in KenPom, No. 12 seed in Midwest7. McNeese (No. 68 in KenPom, No. 12 seed in South)8. Northern Iowa (No. 72 in KenPom, No. 12 seed in East)

Beware of believing in Kansas and North Carolina as sleepers just because of their blue blood nature. This also tells you that the typical strategy of taking No. 12 over No. 5 early can backfire.

Most likely first-round and second-round upsets based on KenPom, by seeding1. No. 11 NC State over No. 6 BYU (West)2. No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky (Midwest)3. No. 6 Tennessee over No. 3 Virginia (Midwest)4. No. 5 St. John's over No. 4 Kansas (East)5. No. 9 Utah State over No. 8 Villanova (West)6. No. 9 Iowa over No. 8 Clemson (South)7. No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 4 Nebraska (South)8. No. 6 Louisville over No. 3 Michigan State (East)

The seeding is pretty good in relation to the KenPom ratings this year, so be careful about going nuts with upset. NC State and Santa Clara are best position as double-digit seeds to make into the Round of 32. Vanderbilt, St. Johns and Louisville are threats to go to the Sweet 16 upset.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

March Madness bracket predictions 2026

East Region Picks

FIRST ROUND

No. 1 Duke over No. 16 Siena

No. 8 Ohio State over No. 9 TCU

No. 5 St. John's over No. 12 Northern Iowa

No. 4 Kansas over No. 13 Cal Baptist

No. 6 Louisville over No. 11 South Florida

No. 3 Michigan State over No. 14 North Dakota State

No. 7 UCLA over 10 UCF

No. 2 UConn over No. 15 Furman

If any bracket is likely to go to form with chalk wining and no shockers, this would be it. There's too much KenPom power here.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 Duke over No. 8 Ohio State

No. 5 St. John's over No. 4 Kansas

No. 6 Louisville over No. 3 Michigan State

No. 2 UConn over No. 7 UCLA

Yes, don't be surprised if a Rick Pitino current team and a Pitino former team take advantage of favorable matchups to join Duke and UConn.

SWEET 16

No. 1 Duke over No. 5 St. John's

No. 6 Louisville over No. 2 UConn

St. John's could keep it going vs. Duke, but Louisville is much better equipped to challenge recent repeat champion UConn.

ELITE EIGHT

No. 1 Duke over No. 6 Louisville

This rematch of the 1986 national title game will go the other way with Duke overmatching Louisville.

West Region Picks

FIRST ROUND

No. 1 Arizona over No. 16 LIU

No. 9 Utah State over No. 8 Villanova

No. 5 Wisconsin over No. 12 High Point

No. 4 Arkansas over No. 13 Hawaii

No. 11 NC State over No. 6 BYU

No. 3 Gonzaga over No. 14 Kennesaw State

No. 7 Miami over No. 10 Missouri

No. 2 Purdue over No. 15 Queens

This also looks pretty strong as a better-seeded favorable part of the bracket. Arizona and the the Big Ten powers, Wisconsin and Purdue, are the strongest.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 Arizona over No. 9 Utah State

No. 4 Arkansas over No. 5 Wisconsin

No. 3 Gonzaga over No. 11 NC State

No. 2 Purdue over No. 7 Miami

Gonzaga can't be forgotten to have more punch than expected as the No. 10 KenPom team.

SWEET 16

No. 1 Arizona over No. 4 Arkansas

No. 3 Gonzaga over No. 2 Purdue

Speaking of Gonzaga, they are a tough KenPom draw for Purdue in the regional semifinals.

ELITE EIGHT

No. 1 Arizona over No. 3 Gonzaga

This would be a truly "West' matchup with two of the most notable traditional powers in the region.

Midwest Region Picks

FIRST ROUND

No. 1 Michigan over No. 16 UMBC/Howard

No. 8 Georgia over No. 9 Saint Louis

No. 5 Texas Tech over No. 12 Akron

No. 4 Alabama over No. 13 Hofstra

No. 6 Tennessee over No. 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU

No. 3 Virginia over No. 14 Wright State

No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky

No. 2 Iowa State over No. 15 Tennessee State

Santa Clara and Tennessee are two more sneaky KenPom teams to watch. Akron is yet another weak No. 12.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 Michigan over No. 8 Georgia

No. 5 Texas Tech over No. 4 Alabama

No. 6 Tennessee over No. 3 Virginia

No. 2 Iowa State over No. 10 Santa Clara

Texas Tech and Tennessee can bust a few brackets as Alabama and Virginia didn't get the best KenPom draws.

SWEET 16

No. 1 Michigan over No. 5 Texas Tech

No. 2 Iowa State over No. 6 Tennessee

Michigan and Iowa State are too strong and can stop the Cinderella runs.

ELITE EIGHT

No. 2 Iowa State over No. 1 Michigan

Iowa State's combined offensive and defensive profile can deny the Wolverines again.

South Region Picks

FIRST ROUND

No. 1 Florida over No. 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh 

No. 9 Iowa over No. 8 Clemson

No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 12 McNeese

No. 4 Nebraska over No. 13 Troy

No. 6 North Carolina over No. 11 VCU

No. 3 Illinois over No. 14 Penn

No. 7 Saint Mary's over No. 10 Texas A&M

No. 2 Houston over No. 15 Idaho

There's not much upset environment here but Iowa is a much better KenPom team than Clemson.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 Florida over No. 9 Iowa

No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 4 Nebraska

No. 3 Illinois over No. 6 North Carolina

No. 2 Houston over No. 7 Saint Mary's

Vanderbilt and Illinois will flex some of their KenPom strengths behind the top seeds in this round.

SWEET 16

No. 1 Florida over No. 5 Vanderbilt

No. 2 Houston over No. 3 Illinois

Florida and Houston seem destined to battle for big things again.

ELITE EIGHT

No. 2 Houston over No. 1 Florida

This time, the Cougars won't blow a chance to put away the Gators.

MORE EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Gay (UCLA women)

Final Four picks 2026

East: Duke

West: Arizona

South: Iowa State

West: Houston

This is a pretty strong group even thought it will be two No. 1s and No. 2s rather than the top four seeds. This will make for another strong national semifinals and finals.

National champion: Arizona over Duke

Arizona is the top seed with the fewest weaknesses and the least injury issues and will live up to its No. 2 KenPom rating.

Final score: Arizona 80, Duke 76